Can You Bet On Us Elections
Politics gambling may not be legal anywhere in the United States. But many Americans do have access to it. A number of offshore bookmakers that serve Americans feature political betting. They offer odds on the US Presidential Election along with other are prominent races. Informal Presidential Election betting markets flourished in 19th century Wall Street, but have been illegal since the 1930s, and remain so in the United States. During this time, however, bettors managed to correctly predict 11 out of the 15 presidential election outcomes (Source). You can bet on all the major sports, as well as some niche ones, and there’s a separate section for political betting, including the US presidential election. Sign up today and grab a 100% matched deposit bonus on your first deposit up to $200.
Yesterday morning, I was having a conversation with a dear friend of mine in another state. She asked me if there was a lot of betting on coronavirus situations. I replied that I thought the upcoming elections were probably generating more action.
She replied, “Isn’t it illegal to gamble on political elections in the United States?”
I’m not sure I knew, so I thought I’d do some research.
Here’s what I learned about whether you can gamble on elections in the United States:
There are quite a few safe online betting sites offering US Presidential Odds, but we’ve found MyBookie to be the best. Follow this link to visit MyBookie or check out our other top-rated online sportsbooks for the 2020 presidential election.
- MyBookie – 100% welcome bonus up to $1,000
- BetNow – 100% welcome bonus up to $1,000
- Bovada – 100% welcome bonus up to $250
- BetUS – 100% welcome bonus up to $2,500
Want a little more info? Jump ahead and learn more about the latest election betting odds and lines.
Betting on United States Elections Isn’t a New Thing
Betting on presidential elections has a long and notorious history in the United States.
And just like the sports betting scene, the action on Presidential elections can be thought of as a marketplace.
From shortly after the Civil War until shortly after World War II, markets for betting on the presidential election were big and efficient. Not only that, but the favorites in betting markets also tended to win elections.
I’d contend that it probably hasn’t, really. It’s now more of an underground betting activity conducted with offshore sportsbooks. Previously, betting on presidential elections was an organized activity – even when it was illegal.
But we do have access to more betting opportunities than ever before. Also, modern scientific polling has replaced some of the interest in betting markets and their predictions for who’s going to be the next President of the United States.
Historically, so-called betting commissioners managed these betting markets and used standard contracts for that purpose. Sometimes you’d see more money betting on elections than were being put into action on stocks and bonds.
In the late 19th and early 20th century, you could get daily odds from various newspapers for at least a month before the election.
The most significant election, in terms of dollars wagered, was the election of 1916. Bettors wagered over $165 million on that contest. (Those dollars have been adjusted for inflation.)
Betting Markets Have Historically Been Good at Predicting Winners
The betting markets on elections in New York City almost always predicted an election’s winner. In fact, the market was also a good predictor of whether a vote was going to be close.
The favorite in these betting markets won almost three out of four times over 50 years. That’s even more impressive when you consider that the practice of conducting scientific polls didn’t begin until the 1930s.
Much of the historical information related to election betting markets between the end of the Civil War and the first half of the 20th century can be found in more detail in a paper on historical prediction markets written by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf.
The conclusion so far, though, is that regardless of the legalities involved, people have been able to bet on presidential elections in the United States for a long time.
And, before polling became standard, betting markets were the de facto means of predicting election outcomes and were remarkably accurate.
Betting Political Elections Is Illegal Throughout the United States
Betting on sports used to be illegal almost everywhere, but over the last couple of years, legislation has loosened up regarding betting on sports.
People also bet on entertainment events like who’s going to win the Oscars, although that kind of betting isn’t as prevalent and isn’t legal in as many states.
This doesn’t mean it’s illegal everywhere. The United Kingdom has always been more open-minded about gambling than the United States, and bets on political events are still common there.
And some bookmakers in other countries are happy to take action from U.S. citizens regardless of the legality in the bettor’s jurisdiction.
Why Is It Illegal to Bet on Elections in the United States?
One of the concerns related to betting on sports is that it might corrupt the integrity of the sport. The Black Sox Scandal in 1919 is a classic example, although it seems to me that outlawing sports betting has done little to prevent such activity.
Everyone I know bets on sports, either with a local bookmaker, an online sportsbook, or both.
There’s a big difference, though.
With sports, the big concern is that bettors will bribe athletes to lose on purpose. In fact, countless movies have been made about boxers who were bribed to throw a match.
Think about it.
If your candidate is a massive longshot, according to the bookmakers, you might be less likely to show up and vote – ensuring that your candidate will lose.
I think this is a lousy argument for making election betting illegal, though.
Polls might easily have the same effect, but, as far as I know, no one has suggested we ban polling.
And, even though you can’t legally bet on an election in the United States, the bookmakers in other countries are still taking action. It’s easy to find out what the odds are for your favorite candidate.
I’ve been watching the gambling industry in the United States for a couple of decades now, and if I’ve learned anything, it’s this:
Changes in gambling laws happen SLOWLY.
How to Bet on the Presidential Election Anyway
First, I’m no lawyer. I don’t even play one on television. I have no idea what the legal risks are when it comes to betting on presidential elections.
But if you’re determined to bet on the presidential election anyway, I can offer some suggestions.
- Your first option is to find a likeminded individual who’s willing to bet with you. This should be someone you know and trust who won’t stiff you. Betting with such a person eliminates the vig, which is the amount that the sportsbook charges you to place a bet.
- Your second option is to find an online sportsbook operating from another country that’s willing to take action from a United States citizen on the election. Many such businesses exist.
As far as choosing the best political betting site is concerned, pay close attention to the bookmaker’s reputation. You’re talking about transferring money to and from a company that’s operating in an at-best grey legal area.
Such sportsbooks claim that the action they’re taking is governed by the jurisdiction where they operate. Presumably, it’s legal there to bet on such activities. United States prosecutors have a different attitude, which is why people like Calvin Ayre are hard to find.
The point is that you need to be comfortable that the book is going to pay you off if and when you win your bets. Some offshore sportsbooks are notorious for stiffing their customers.
Once you find such a sportsbook, you’ll need to find a way to get money to and from the company.
Once you’ve established an account at such a company and funded it, actually placing the bet is just a matter of finding the wager you want to make, inputting the amount you wish to wager, and pointing and clicking.
Odds on the 2020 US Presidential Election
Odds at MyBookie
- Joe Biden (-155)
- Donald Trump (+115)
- Kamala Harris (+1500)
- Mike Pence (+10000)
- Anyone Else (+35000)
Visit MyBookie
Odds at Bovada
- Joe Biden (-165)
- Donald Trump (+125)
- Kamala Harris (+7500)
- Mike Pence (+7500)
Visit Bovada
Odds at BetOnline
- Joe Biden (-180)
- Donald Trump (+160)
- Kamala Harris (+10000)
- Mike Pence (+10000)
- Jo Jorgensen (+50000)
Visit BetOnline
It’s no secret that offshore sportsbooks take action on presidential elections. I see the odds being published and updated regularly on various news sites.
So let’s look at recent odds for the presidential election at BetOnline.ag has Joe Biden at -180 and Donald Trump at +160. You could also bet on Hillary Clinton at +6000.
The -180 odds on Joe Biden mean that if you bet $180 on Biden winning, you win $100 if he wins the election.
The +160 odds on Donald Trump mean that if you bet $100 on Trump winning, you win $160 if he wins the election.
The minus sign indicates that he’s the favorite, so that’s the amount you must risk to win $100.
Hillary Clinton is clearly a longshot, so if you wager $100 on her winning, and she somehow pulls it off, you’d win $600.
Even with 60 to 1 odds, though, I think betting on Hillary is a sucker bet.
Conclusion
Sure, people have been doing so for decades.
But it isn’t legal to take action on such wagers.
My advice is to obey the law, but if you want to put a little money down on the next presidential election, at least only risk money you can afford to lose – especially if you’re betting with an offshore sportsbook rather than a buddy of yours.
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Betting on politics is a subject nearly as complex as politics themselves. No doubt, interest in political betting is sharply on the rise as politics increasingly dominate both the broader media landscape and everyday conversations.
These days, election odds and the way people bet on key races is even used by political scientists and pundits in their attempts to predict the outcome of key races and elections.
This guide covers everything you need to know about betting on politics and elections.
Is Betting on Politics Legal in the United States?
Many sportsbooks licensed around the globe offer the opportunity to wager on election outcomes. However, no legal sportsbooks licensed in the United States are currently allowed to offer odds on politics. When it comes to the American market, the election odds you see on SportsBettingDime.com are for entertainment purposes only.
The regulation of all betting-related matters in the US is left up to individual states. In theory, any state could eventually authorize betting on election outcomes or other political developments. That said, it seems unlikely that state regulators will embrace political betting outright. There’s simply no appetite for anything that could call the integrity of elections into question, and antiquated perceptions of gambling are never far from the mind of a certain subsection of politicians and rule-makers.
Political prediction markets work a bit differently than traditional sportsbooks, but they do offer a legal option for Americans wondering how they can bet on politics. Luckily, would-be political bettors in many other countries around the globe are free to wager on the next President or other major political developments directly at their online sportsbook.
Types of Political Betting
There are two main ways to bet on politics: prediction markets and online sportsbooks. Learn more about each of them below.
1. Try Prediction Markets
Prediction markets pose “yes” or “no” questions to traders, such as:
- Will Donald Trump run for President of the United States in 2024?
- Will Tucker Carlson announce his candidacy for President?
- Will Michelle Obama become the first female president in 2024?
Traders buy “yes” or “no” shares related to each proposition. Just like the stock market, the value of these shares shifts with supply and demand. If your predicted outcome happens, the futures market will pay 100 cents on the dollar, and zero if it does not.
Prediction markets have long been allowed in the US, in part for the valuable insights they provide to social scientists. As traders buy and sell shares, researchers gain insight into public perception of candidates and the events surrounding them. People buy shares according to their expectation of what will actually occur, not just what they want to happen. As a result, prediction markets provide real-time insight into how campaigns are performing over time.
2. Betting on Politics at Your Online Sportsbook
Many bettors outside the United States have the option of wagering directly on election outcomes and other political events at their sportsbook of choice.
Political props at the sportsbook look much the same as other props you’ll see related to sports and entertainment.
Here are some common political prop bets you can expect to see:
Odds to Win the 2024 Republican/Democratic Presidential Primary
This prop asks you to select the eventual nominees for either the Republican or Democratic ticket for the 2024 presidential election. It can be advantageous to put your bets in early on this prop, as more options in the field lead to longer odds and a potentially higher payout if you make the right call. Whenever you place your bets, remember that the money you wager will be tied up until the outcome is decided.
Odds to Win the 2024 Presidential Election
As the name suggests, this prop concerns the overall winner of the 2024 election. Most sportsbooks list individual candidates, but may also have spin-off props like:
- Which party will win the 2024 Presidential Election?
- Will a man or woman win the 2024 Presidential Election?
Odds to Win the Popular Vote
Betting lines on the popular vote typically appear one or two months out from Election Day. Though the popular vote does not determine the actual results of US presidential elections, there is generally a lot of talk surrounding who wins.
Odds to Win a Specific State
The truth of American elections is that some states are far more important than others. Expect to see betting lines as to who will win key swing states start surfacing early on in electoral races. Winning a swing state can make or break a campaign for candidates, so this type of line can be a particularly exciting one to bet on.
Odds on Candidate Antics
Many sportsbooks also offer props on candidates doing certain things; this past cycle, you could find odds on how many times Donald Trump would say certain phrases during the debates.
Get Started with Political Betting
If you’ve never placed a bet before, our betting guides are a great place to get started.
The process is not nearly as intimidating as all the numbers and symbols make it appear, and political betting can be an exciting (and potentially lucrative) way to put your knowledge to the test. Of course, you’ll need to limit yourself to betting at political prediction markets if you live in the United States.
Of course, you’ll want to perform enough research to make an informed wager whenever you put money on the line. There’s no shortage of punditry and opinion out there when it comes to predicting election outcomes, so take the time to carefully filter information and try to cut through the noise.
Odds Of Trump Winning 2020
Naturally, it pays to keep your own political leanings out of things when betting on politics. Bet with your head, not with your heart!