Relegation Odds Premier League 2018 19
- Premier League 2018-19 betting odds and tips: Title winners, top four, relegation and Golden Boot. 03 September 2018.
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With the upcoming English Premier League season ready to get underway this Friday, we’ll continue our series of previews here at The Sports Geek blog.
Having already broken down the main title contenders for the 2018/2019 campaign, it’s now time to feature which teams will be battling at the other end of the table – for top-flight survival.
Many soccer leagues feature relegation, and the EPL is no different. Following every season, three bottom teams go down to the second-tier, and three teams from the Championship, come up to join the Premier League.
In the 2017/2018 season, you will recall that Swansea, Stoke City, and West Bromwich Albion were all relegated, while Cardiff City, Wolverhampton, and Fulham got the highly-coveted promotion spots.
Relegation certainly keeps things interesting throughout the entire campaign, and in this article we will take a detailed look at current relegation odds, and the five sides that we anticipate will be closest to relegation this season. Read on below for all the details in this year’s relegation battle, as well as where the value lies as we prep for yet another thrilling Premier League campaign.
Cardiff City (-140)
One Welsh side goes down in Swansea, and they’ll be replaced this season by Cardiff City.
Led by Manager Neil Warnock, Cardiff could be in trouble to stay up this season. Warnock is definitely a master at getting teams into the top flight, but the 70-year-old has never managed to successfully keep a team in the top league. He has many skeptics and he will be in tough to silence them with his current squad.
It also doesn’t help matters that the Bluebirds haven’t spent anywhere near enough to meaningfully compete this year. Compared to their counterparts from the Championship, Fulham, and Wolverhampton – Cardiff hasn’t exactly busted out their wallets and they could endure a repeat of their last trip to the Premier League in 2013/14, when they came up to much fanfare, and promptly left the very next season.
Up front, their star target is Junior Hoilett. The Canadian international has signed a new deal with Cardiff City, and he will be counted upon to score regularly. That said, beyond that, there won’t be much support or effective link-play to the speedy striker.
Overall, they lack depth and defensive solidity. Against sides that ooze talent, there’s simply no way this roster will be able to have any say of matters in the midfield or control enough of the ball to experience meaningful possession and generate chances. It also doesn’t help that their first month of the EPL season has them having to endure a three-game stretch vs. Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester City.
Without more moves and money spent, it could be another quick trip in the top flight for the Bluebirds.
Huddersfield Town (+110)
Huddersfield came up from the Championship of the beginning of last season, and though they started their campaign with some success and flair – things really went sideways on them once 2018 hit.
This season they enter firmly on relegation alert, and even though manager David Wagner signed a new contract with the club, not enough has been done to address their key weaknesses in finishing.
Premier League Relegation Explained
Last year, Wagner’s Terriers finished just four points safe of the drop zone, and with likely one of the smallest budgets in the entire top flight – surviving relegation will be a tall task.
Huddersfield won’t catch any teams by surprise this year, and with a tough schedule at the outset – there is simply no chance they will be able to get by on the backs of another strong start. Losing Tom Ince up front further complicates where goals will come from, and ultimately it seems the 2018/2019 campaign will just be a sad continuation of how they finished last season. The Terriers at plus-money seem a safe bet to head back down to the Championship.
Watford (+200)
Last season’s bottom-half holdovers could be in especially tough this campaign when you consider all of the ambition the likes of Fulham and Wolves have shown in the summer transfer market. Watford is one of those teams that could be in an unfortunate position as a result.
They’ve lost their star player in Richarlison to Everton and though they did bring in Gerard Deulofeu from Barcelona, there just isn’t enough quality scattered throughout the lineup to not be immersed in a tough relegation battle.
This off-season they have gone out however and addressed some specific needs, which is better than some of their main competitors. They improved defensively, bringing in goalkeeper Ben Foster, and left back Adam Masina. The Hornets also did a good job in retaining some key players, as they convinced Abdoulaye Doucoure to sign on to a new five-year contract.
But ultimately, as is often the case with these lower-budget sides that flirt with relegation, there just isn’t enough quality up front. Like Huddersfield, you really wonder where the goals will come from, as this is a group that managed just 11 goals in the 13 games in which Javi Gracia was on the touchline for.
They’ve done well with a huge Richarlison sale, but the money has yet to be spent wisely. They have clear areas of need, and though I think they’re safe as of now – more will likely need to be done in the January transfer window to secure their fate.
Bournemouth (+400)
The Cherries put together another solid campaign in the top flight of English football last year, but in an increasingly competitive league, a quiet summer should have them on high alert.
After coming 12th last year, manager Eddie Howe hasn’t elected to get too involved in summer signings, instead opting to use the players at his disposal. They play an attractive brand of soccer, but ultimately that might be their downfall this season. There are also rumors that the club is looking to reap some big profits on talented players Lewis Cook and Jefferson Lerma. That duo does a lot for the club, and if one or both of them do end up leaving by the August 9th deadline, relegation could be a real possibility.
Though goal-scoring is something that the Cherries have done full over their past few years in the Premier League, you have to wonder if it is sustainable.
Key striker Jermain Defoe is entering his late-thirties and can’t be effectively relied on to always carry the offense. Beyond him, there really isn’t much as Callum Wilson and Joshua King has not developed the way many figured they would.
Despite having some comfortable seasons, this is a year where the offense could dry up and their style just is not suited to what could be a grinding EPL season. There are many closely-matched sides, and the fact that Bournemouth hasn’t put an emphasis on defensive structure and personnel, could put far too much pressure on their keeper Asmir Begovic. They haven’t improved at all this off-season, and if Cook and Lerma do end up departing, Eddie Howe’s job could be on the line in southern England.
Brighton & Hove Albion (+250)
It remains to be seen if Brighton can avoid this season’s sophomore slump and like Eddie Howe in Bournemouth, the pressure will be squarely on Chris Hughton to do a job with Brighton.
Last year Brighton made a successful debut and ended up finishing seven points clear of the drop zone. The Seagulls had some real highlights and showed the league that they can feature with the best squads. The problem was that they were also capable of some dreadful results at times. It did help however that last season also saw three pretty brutal relegation teams in Swansea, West Brom, and Stoke City. As mentioned, this year there’s no proverbial minnow just waiting to be relegated – and as a result Brighton will again need to earn every point.
Brighton did a nice job of bringing in some low-value signings that could have a big impact on the upcoming season. New signings like Florin Andone should add an offensive punch up front, and Alireza Jahanbakhsh arrives from the Dutch league as well. That duo will add some much-needed creativity to a Brighton side that should be able to score a few more goals this year.
It’s hard to see Brighton surpassing last year’s finish of fifteenth place, and as a result they’ll likely be in the hunt for relegation. Their work in the off-season though should be commended, and while it should be tight – Brighton should have enough to stave off some fierce competition.
VERDICTThere you have it, a look at some of the teams that we anticipate will be in the mix for the bottom-five positions for this season’s Premier League. I think Cardiff City and Huddersfield Town both represent good value to go down, while Watford and Brighton should have enough quality for survival. That leaves the Cherries of Bournemouth as the third team in my mind, and while that seems crazy – their lack of upgrades and pending departures leaves them vulnerable all over the pitch. Newcomers Fulham and Wolverhampton will also be in the mix, but lofty off-season signings have them positioned for some success this year.
The 40-point mark is considered the level a side needs to notch up on the Premier League table if they are to avoid relegation. Huddersfield Town and Southampton with 37 and 36 points in the 2017-18 season were lucky to stave off relegation by the skin of their teeth by virtue of their 16th and 17th spots respectively. Swansea City, Stoke City and West Bromwich on the 18th, 19th and 20th spots were relegated.
There could be a scramble to stay out of the bottom three (which is relegation territory) this time, given that just 8 points separated the 10th placed and 17th placed teams when the 2017-18 season ended. With tough sides like the Wolverhampton Wanderers “Wolves” and Fulham coming in, the going for sides like Bournemouth, Watford and Brighton could possibly get rough according to bookmakers. Contrary to expectations, the season for Bournemouth has begun well with the Cherries having registered wins over Cardiff City and West Ham. Watford, too, defying pundits, have got off to a flyer beating Brighton at home 2-0 and Burnley away at Turf Moor 1-3.
Cardiff City is another new entrant to the Premier League but head the odds (1/2) as far as relegation in the present 2018-19 season is concerned. The Welsh debutante pulled off a surprise 0-0 draw at home against Newcastle last weekend but lost to Bournemouth 0-2 in their opener.
Huddersfield Town, who made their first-ever entry to the Premier League last season may not be so lucky this time around. David Wagner’s side have been pummeled in both their initial Premier League outings 0-3 and 6-1 by Chelsea and Manchester City respectively. At odds of 4/6, they are the next in line after Cardiff City as tipped by the bookmakers to exit the Premier League this season.
Fulham at 11/4 is the third team tipped to face potential relegation. The West London club, managed by Slavisa Jokanovic, are back into the Premier league after a gap of 4 seasons but haven’t begun the 2018-19 season well, losing both their opening games – 0-2 to Crystal Palace at home and 3-1 to Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley.
Burnley at 11/4 is one more club tied with Fulham. After having played out a 0-0 draw with Southampton, The Clarets succumbed to a 1-3 defeat to Watford. Under coach Sean Dyche, Burnley had one of their best seasons in recent times emerging 7th on the Premier League table in 2017-18. According to bookmakers that could have been a flash in the pan judging from the poor odds wagered on Burnley for the current year.
Brighton are relegation candidates, too, with odds of 11/4. First time entrants to the Premier League in 2016-17, coach Chris Hughton’s men performed better than expected when they ended the season 15th on the table with 40 points. After an opening loss of 0-2 to Watford, Brighton pulled off in what could be one of the upsets of the season, beating Manchester United 3-2.
Recommended Tip: Fulham to be relegated at 11/4 Ladbrokes price.
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